Manatee & Dugong — Progress Toward 1% Weekly Compounding
Manatee is on target
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Days live | 14 (since Oct 18) |
| Capital deployed | $1,100 |
| Current account value | $1,121.95 |
| Total return | +$21.95 (+2.0% ROE) |
| Weekly target (2 wks) | ~2.01% compounded |
| Verdict | On target |
| Closed trades | 55 |
| Win rate (closed) | 100% — every close was a profit harvest |
| Open positions | 8 (HYPE short + 7 xyz equities: INTC, META, GOOGL, CRCL, SKHX, SILVER, SPCX) |
| Realized PnL | ~$26 (offset by ~$5 unrealized drawdown on open book) |
| Stops | Every position has a reduce-only stop resting on-chain |
| Max single-name risk | ~1.35% of account if a position hits its stop |
Dugong is on target
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Days live | 9 (since Oct 23) |
| Capital deployed | $700 |
| Current account value | $709.43 |
| Total return | +$9.43 (+1.35% ROE) |
| Weekly target (9 days) | ~1.29% compounded |
| Verdict | On target (slightly ahead) |
| Closed trades | 27 |
| Win rate (closed) | 100% — same harvest-only closes |
| Open positions | 8 (same names as Manatee — they share a signal) |
| Realized PnL | ~$15.50 (offset by ~$6 unrealized on open book) |
| Stops | Every position has a reduce-only stop resting on-chain |
| Max single-name risk | ~1.8% of account (tighter stop, higher leverage) |
The engine both strategies share
Both run the same mean-reversion engine: rank the most liquid names across both Hyperliquid boards (perps + xyz equities/indices/commodities), buy what closed well below its 1-week average, short what closed above it, and let an automated profit-lock harvest a 1.4% reversion around the clock. Up to 10 slots, 1.5% margin per clip, both directions, no directional bias — the signal picks the side. The universe refreshes daily from the venue's own open-interest data.
The 100% win rate on closed trades is real but structural: the profit-lock only closes at a profit. Losses come through stops, not closes — so the win rate reflects the design, not luck. The test is whether no stop has fired yet (true so far for both) and whether the harvests outpace the stops when they do.
How Manatee and Dugong differ
| Manatee | Dugong | |
|---|---|---|
| Leverage | 2x | 3x |
| Price stop | 30% (wide) | 20% (tighter — can't be wider at 3x or liquidation fires first) |
| Adds per position | 2 (scales in deeper) | 1 (single clip) |
| Daily loss limit | 8% of account | 12% |
| Universe filter | $50M+ OI | $50M+ OI and 10x+ max leverage (needs room for the stop to fill before liquidation) |
| Margin per clip | ~$15 (1.5% of $1,100) | ~$10 (1.5% of $700) |
| Risk per stopped name | ~$4.05 (1.35% of account) | ~$2.10 (1.8% of account at 3x, but fewer adds = smaller absolute) |
Both on target, the test ahead
No stops have fired yet — the book is all harvests and open drawdown. That's the good part of a mean-reversion strategy in a two-sided market. The test comes in a one-way tape: when a name keeps stretching through its stop, the 100% win rate breaks. The question is whether 55 (Manatee) and 27 (Dugong) harvests of ~$0.40 each can absorb the occasional $4 stop-out. Early math says yes — each harvest is ~1.4% of a clip's notional, and a full stop is ~20–30% of the same clip, so roughly 15–20 harvests pay for one stop. Both are well past that ratio for now.
Past performance is not a forecast. The strategies are 14 and 9 days old — short enough that a clean trend week could change the picture fast.