Brent crude crashed ~12% in 48 hours
After tagging $114.07 on Nov 1, price crashed to $100.80 — a ~12% drop in 48 hours, with two distinct deleveraging waves visible on the 1h tape.
The 24-hour price path
| Time (UTC) | Price | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 18:00 | ~$104.62 | Already beaten down from $114, finding a floor |
| Nov 3, 02:00 | $104.08 | Capitulation candle — 1.23M contracts traded (25x normal), wick to $103.30 |
| Nov 3, 07:00 | $107.30 | Dead-cat bounce — steady grind +2.7% |
| Nov 3, 10:00 | $100.80 | Second leg crash — $105.03 → $101.82 in one hour, 604K volume (12x normal) |
| Nov 3, 18:00 | $103.60 | Stabilized, volume fading |
The crash came in three waves
Funding is flat after the crash
- Current funding: 0.00000625/h (5.475% APR) — baseline, direction SHORT (longs pay)
- 24h funding trend: DECAYING — spiked to 0.0000413/h (~36% APR) during the bounce attempt at Nov 3 ~07:00, then collapsed back to baseline as the bounce failed. Shorts capitulated briefly during the rally, then re-engaged hard.
- The Nov 2, 22:00 spike: Funding hit 0.0000563/h (~49% APR) — that was longs piling in near $106.44 right before the second leg down. They got annihilated.
- OI velocity: FLAT / STABLE — open interest barely moved in the last 4h (+1.6%), suggesting the deleveraging is largely complete
- Premium to oracle: +0.02% — essentially zero, no stress on the mark
The order book is balanced
Balanced. Best bid $103.58 (341 contracts) / best ask $103.59 (152 contracts). Depth is even on both sides with no aggressive skew — the book is calm after the storm. Notable walls: 6,077 contracts at $103.45 (bid) and 6,307 at $103.70 (ask).
The deleveraging is done but support is thin
This was a two-phase deleveraging, not a flash crash. Wave 1 broke $108 support with institutional volume (1.23M contracts on the capitulation candle alone). The bounce to $107.30 was met with a funding spike to ~49% APR — longs sprinting back in — and then Wave 3 wiped them out, taking out $104 and testing $100.80.